Napoli vs Porto betting tips by Mayorkan

Napoli is in a must win situation against a comparable thus acceptable opponent. The home victory is very likely outcome considering 78% win rate at home in all tournaments and 86% home win rate in Champions league in the past three year period. The team has home advantage and cannot qualify with a 1:0 victory unless extratime and penalties are considered. 1:0 victory in regular time has no more than 7% probability for happening considering Napoli home performance in all tournaments. With the constant threat for a qualifying goal for the guest team Napoli has to push forward in search of second and possibly decisive third goal. Based on last 27 home matches in all tournaments Napoli has some 74% chance to score two or more goals. Napoli scored at least two goals in 86% of their home matches in Champions league in the past three years. Napoli scored at least two or more goals in 60% of last five EL home encounters. Napoli successfully scored two or more goals to Man city, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal - teams well beyond the class of their current opponent Porto. Porto on the other hand are in a bit of a crisis - the team underperforms in Portugal as result of which there is enormous 12 points difference with the leader Benfica and 5 points with the second team Sporting. Porto has problems with the defence - this season they concede 0.78 goals per match and in 2012/2013 this value was 0.47. In EL Porto conceded two or more goals in 100% of their last four away matches and two of these four teams are weaker ones in general.

Maggio (mifielder; 20/0) and Rafael (second goalkeeper; 7/1) will miss the match for Napoli due to injuries.

For Porto injured is Helton (main goalkeeper; 23/0) while Abdoulaye is not eligible for EL and Sandro (defender; 21/0) has yellow card ban.

The offered bet is Napoli to score over 1.5 goals.